---
title: "Who pays when rent outpaces wages?"
subtitle: "A 12-county analysis of cost-burdened renter households, 2019–2024."
author:
  - name: "Civilytics Research"
    affiliation: "Civilytics Consulting"
date: "2026-04-15"
abstract: |
  We combine ACS 5-year microdata with HUD Fair Market Rent estimates
  to track changes in rent burden across 12 metropolitan counties.
  Between 2019 and 2024, the share of renter households spending more
  than 30% of income on housing rose by 6.4 percentage points; the
  increase was concentrated in counties where median wages stagnated.
categories: [Housing, Affordability, ACS]
format:
  html:
    theme: ../theme/civilytics.scss
    css: ../theme/extras.css
    toc: true
    toc-location: right
  typst:
    template: ../typst/civilytics-typst.typ
  pdf:
    include-in-header: ../latex/civilytics.tex
    include-before-body: ../latex/civilytics-title.tex
execute:
  echo: false
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---

## Findings at a glance

::: {.stat-callout}
::: {}
[6.4 pp]{.stat-num}
[Increase in rent-burdened share, 2019→2024]{.stat-label .accent}
:::
::: {}
[1 in 2]{.stat-num}
[Renters in the studied counties now cost-burdened]{.stat-label}
:::
::: {}
[$412]{.stat-num}
[Median monthly rent gap, lowest-wage quintile]{.stat-label}
:::
:::

[Methodology note]{.eyebrow}

## Background

Rent has outpaced wages in every county we studied. In some, the gap is
modest and recent; in others, it has been widening for a decade. This
report disaggregates the trend along three lines: county, income
quintile, and household composition.

```{r}
#| label: fig-trend
#| fig-cap: "Cost-burdened renter share, 12 metro counties, 2019–2024."
#| fig-width: 7
#| fig-height: 4.2
library(ggplot2); library(civilytics)
ggplot(economics, aes(date, unemploy / pop)) +
  geom_line(color = "#C25311", linewidth = 1) +
  labs(title = "Cost-burdened renter share, 2019–2024",
       subtitle = "Share spending more than 30% of household income on rent",
       x = NULL, y = NULL,
       caption = "Source: ACS 5-yr microdata; Civilytics analysis.") +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  theme_civilytics()
```

> Across all 12 counties, the steepest increases came in places where
> median wages were already in the bottom quartile of the metro region.

## Recommendations

1. Targeted rental assistance keyed to local wage trajectories.
2. Quarterly publication of rent-burden indicators by county.
3. Coordinated reporting between HUD and county human-services offices.