Fix chart sizing, model predictions, 90% intervals, and deep link district name

- Increase SVG dimensions in all 6 charts to prevent label truncation
- Fix ModelDrawsComparison: pass quadData so predictions render for three-year models
- Change error bars from 95% to 90% (legend text + SD calculation)
- Widen chart viewport: max-width 70rem vs default 60rem text width
- Fix deep link: fetch district name from API instead of showing 'Loading...'

src/App.jsx

@@ -4,6 +4,7 @@ import DistrictSearch from './components/DistrictSearch.jsx'
 import LoadingAnimation from './components/LoadingAnimation.jsx'
 import ChartPanel from './components/ChartPanel.jsx'
 import Footer from './components/Footer.jsx'
+import { searchDistricts } from './hooks/useApi.js'
 
 /**
  * CRDC Arrests API Demo App — main router.
@@ -20,11 +21,24 @@ export default function App() {
     const leaid = params.get('leaid')
     const stateParam = params.get('state')
     if (leaid && stateParam) {
-      // Deep link: skip straight to loading → results.
-      // We need to fetch the district name since we only have LEAID from URL.
+      // Deep link: fetch district name first, then go to loading.
       setSelectedState(stateParam)
-      setDistrict({ leaid, lea_name: 'Loading…', state: stateParam })
-      setStep('loading')
+      
+      // Fetch district name from API
+      searchDistricts(leaid, stateParam).then(results => {
+        const district = results?.find(d => d.leaid === leaid)
+        if (district) {
+          setDistrict(district)
+        } else {
+          // Fallback if district not found
+          setDistrict({ leaid, lea_name: 'Unknown District', state: stateParam })
+        }
+        setStep('loading')
+      }).catch(() => {
+        // Fallback on error
+        setDistrict({ leaid, lea_name: 'Unknown District', state: stateParam })
+        setStep('loading')
+      })
     }
   }, [])
 

src/charts/ArrestsOverTime.jsx

@@ -15,9 +15,9 @@ export default function ArrestsOverTime({ data, districtName }) {
   )
 
   // Chart dimensions (SVG-based, no D3 dependency)
-  const width = 260
-  const height = 220
-  const margin = { top: 40, right: 80, bottom: 50, left: 55 }
+  const width = 360
+  const height = 280
+  const margin = { top: 50, right: 90, bottom: 60, left: 65 }
   const innerWidth = width - margin.left - margin.right
   const innerHeight = height - margin.top - margin.bottom
 

src/charts/DistrictVsNational.jsx

@@ -4,9 +4,9 @@
  */
 
 export default function DistrictVsNational({ topGroup, nationalRate, rateByGroup }) {
-  const width = 280
-  const height = 240
-  const margin = { top: 35, right: 20, bottom: 60, left: 55 }
+  const width = 360
+  const height = 300
+  const margin = { top: 45, right: 30, bottom: 80, left: 70 }
   const innerWidth = width - margin.left - margin.right
 
   // Compute max rate for scaling (district + national)

src/charts/ExceedanceProbability.jsx

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ export default function ExceedanceProbability({ rateByGroup, nationalRates }) {
 
   // Compute exceedance probability for each group using normal approximation:
   // P(district_rate > national) ≈ Φ((modeled_median - national) / modeled_sd)
-  // where sd is derived from the interval width (upper - lower) / (2 * z_{0.975})
+  // where sd is derived from the interval width (upper - lower) / (2 * z_{0.95})
   const computed = rateByGroup.map(d => {
     const natKey = `${d.race}_${d.sex}`
     const nationalRate = nationalRates[natKey] || 0
@@ -25,8 +25,8 @@ export default function ExceedanceProbability({ rateByGroup, nationalRates }) {
     // Derive SD from interval width if available, else use observed as proxy
     const lowerPerK = ((d.rate_lower || 0) * 1000) || (modeledRatePerK * 0.7)
     const upperPerK = ((d.rate_upper || 0) * 1000) || (modeledRatePerK * 1.3)
-    // sd ≈ (upper - lower) / (2 * 1.96) for a 95% interval under normality
-    const modeledSd = Math.max((upperPerK - lowerPerK) / 3.92, 0.05)
+    // sd ≈ (upper - lower) / (2 * 1.645) for a 90% interval under normality
+    const modeledSd = Math.max((upperPerK - lowerPerK) / 3.29, 0.05)
 
     // P(district > national) using normal CDF approximation
     const z = (modeledRatePerK - nationalRate) / modeledSd
@@ -42,9 +42,9 @@ export default function ExceedanceProbability({ rateByGroup, nationalRates }) {
     }
   }).sort((a, b) => b.probExceeds - a.probExceeds)
 
-  const width = 300
-  const height = 260
-  const margin = { top: 40, right: 80, bottom: 70, left: 55 }
+  const width = 400
+  const height = 320
+  const margin = { top: 50, right: 100, bottom: 90, left: 70 }
   const innerWidth = width - margin.left - margin.right
 
   return (

src/charts/ModelDrawsComparison.jsx

@@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ export default function ModelDrawsComparison({ data, waves, districtName }) {
 
       {/* Note */}
       <p style={{ fontSize: '0.72rem', color: 'var(--cv-ink-3)', marginTop: 'var(--space-1)' }}>
-        Red circles = observed arrests. Teal points + error bars (three-year models only) show Bayesian model median and 95% interval. One-year models can only compare against the most recent wave.
+        Red circles = observed arrests. Teal points + error bars (three-year models only) show Bayesian model median and 90% interval. One-year models can only compare against the most recent wave.
       </p>
     </div>
   )
@@ -66,9 +66,9 @@ export default function ModelDrawsComparison({ data, waves, districtName }) {
 
 /** Single quadrant chart: predicted vs observed for one model specification */
 function QuadrantChart({ q, waveData, quadModels, maxArrests }) {
-  const width = 280
-  const height = 240
-  const margin = { top: 35, right: 20, bottom: 60, left: 45 }
+  const width = 360
+  const height = 280
+  const margin = { top: 45, right: 25, bottom: 70, left: 55 }
 
   // For three-year models show all 3 waves; for one-year only the most recent
   const showYears = (q.key.includes('m3') || q.key.includes('m4')) ? ['15-16', '17-18', '21-22'] : ['21-22']
@@ -165,7 +165,7 @@ function QuadrantChart({ q, waveData, quadModels, maxArrests }) {
             <>
               <line x1={70} y1={7} x2={86} y2={7} stroke="var(--teal-600)" strokeWidth={1.5} />
               <circle cx={78} cy={7} r={3} fill="var(--teal-600)" />
-              <text x={92} y={11} fontSize="0.6rem" fill="var(--cv-ink)">Model (median + 95%)</text>
+              <text x={92} y={11} fontSize="0.6rem" fill="var(--cv-ink)">Model (median + 90%)</text>
             </>
           )}
         </g>

src/charts/ObservedRateDensity.jsx

@@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ export default function ObservedRateDensity({ quadData }) {
   // Max value for scaling the ridgeline chart
   const maxRate = Math.max(...modelResults.map(r => r.modeledUpper), ...modelResults.map(r => r.observedRate), 0.5)
 
-  const width = 280
-  const height = 220
-  const margin = { top: 30, right: 20, bottom: 60, left: 45 }
+  const width = 380
+  const height = 280
+  const margin = { top: 40, right: 30, bottom: 80, left: 60 }
 
   return (
     <div className="cv-card" style={{ padding: 'var(--space-2)' }}>
@@ -89,7 +89,7 @@ export default function ObservedRateDensity({ quadData }) {
               {/* Observed rate bar (solid) */}
               <rect x={margin.left} y={rowY + 4} width={obsWidth} height={barHeight - 8} fill="var(--cv-navy-600)" rx={2} opacity={0.9} />
 
-              {/* Model interval (dashed outline showing 95% range) */}
+              {/* Model interval (dashed outline showing 90% range) */}
               <rect x={lowerX} y={rowY + 4} width={upperWidth} height={barHeight - 8} fill="none" stroke="var(--teal-600)" strokeWidth={1.5} rx={2} />
 
               {/* Model median marker */}
@@ -125,13 +125,13 @@ export default function ObservedRateDensity({ quadData }) {
           <text x={18} y={10}>Observed rate</text>
           <line x1={140} y1={6} x2={156} y2={6} stroke="var(--teal-600)" strokeWidth={2} />
           <circle cx={148} cy={6} r={3} fill="var(--teal-600)" />
-          <text x={162} y={10}>Model (median + 95% interval)</text>
+          <text x={162} y={10}>Model (median + 90% interval)</text>
         </g>
       </svg>
 
       {/* Note */}
       <p style={{ fontSize: '0.72rem', color: 'var(--cv-ink-3)', marginTop: 'var(--space-1)' }}>
-        Solid blue = observed rate per 1,000 students. Teal outline + median line shows each model's posterior distribution (95% interval). Dashed lines indicate the range of plausible values according to each Bayesian specification.
+        Solid blue = observed rate per 1,000 students. Teal outline + median line shows each model's posterior distribution (90% interval). Dashed lines indicate the range of plausible values according to each Bayesian specification.
       </p>
     </div>
   )

src/charts/RateByGroupBar.jsx

@@ -15,9 +15,9 @@ const GROUP_COLORS = {
 }
 
 export default function RateByGroupBar({ data }) {
-  const width = 280
-  const height = 240
-  const margin = { top: 35, right: 20, bottom: 80, left: 45 }
+  const width = 360
+  const height = 300
+  const margin = { top: 45, right: 30, bottom: 100, left: 60 }
   const innerWidth = width - margin.left - margin.right
   const barHeight = Math.min(16, (innerWidth * 0.7) / data.length)
 

src/components/ChartPanel.jsx

@@ -102,7 +102,10 @@ export default function ChartPanel({ district, state }) {
       <div style={{
         display: 'flex',
         flexDirection: 'column',
-        gap: 'var(--space-5)'
+        gap: 'var(--space-5)',
+        maxWidth: '70rem',
+        marginLeft: 'auto',
+        marginRight: 'auto'
       }}>
         {/* Charts 1–3: Observed & descriptive */} 
         <ArrestsOverTime data={timeSeriesData} districtName={district.lea_name} />
@@ -112,7 +115,7 @@ export default function ChartPanel({ district, state }) {
         <DistrictVsNational topGroup={topGroup} nationalRate={nationalTopRate} rateByGroup={rateByGroup} />
 
         {/* Charts 4–6: Bayesian model distributions */}
-        <ModelDrawsComparison data={chart4Data} waves={['15-16', '17-18', '21-22']} districtName={district.lea_name} />
+        <ModelDrawsComparison data={{ ...chart4Data, quadData: chart5Data }} waves={['15-16', '17-18', '21-22']} districtName={district.lea_name} />
 
         <ObservedRateDensity quadData={chart5Data} />