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uscogdata/vignettes/population-denominators.Rmd
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R-CMD-check / check (push) Failing after 3m4s
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fix: literal name search, units docs, peer-summary semantics (#16, #15, #14)
The three kodor/fix issues, taken over after a day with no branch, PR or
comment on any of them. Batched because each is single-file with a committed
acceptance test, and two share documentation surfaces.

#16 (F-025) -- cog_gov_search() utility mode interpolated `name` straight
into regexp_matches() unescaped, while basket mode in the same file already
routed it through .escape_regex() with the comment "so `name` is treated as
a literal substring". Two failure modes, both HTTP 200 through the API:
a government could not be found by its own complete name when that name
contains a metacharacter (FREDONIA (BRISCOE) CITY returned nothing), and a
bare "." matched all 608 Wisconsin cities. Malformed pattern text reached
the engine as an error, which cog-api surfaced as a 500 -- reachable by
typing a real name one character at a time ("Athens-Clarke County (bal").

Utility mode now calls the escaper that already existed. Roxygen updated:
utility mode is documented as a literal case-insensitive substring match,
and the basket-mode "substring fallback" step no longer describes itself as
a regex either.

  BEHAVIOUR CHANGE worth flagging: anchored exact-match searches stop
  working, because there is no regex left to anchor. Two existing tests used
  "^BROWARD COUNTY$" and "^FLORIDA$" as their exact-match idiom; both now
  search for those characters literally. Updated to the bare names, which
  still resolve to exactly one row each once scoped by state/type (verified,
  not assumed). There is no exact-match option in utility mode any more --
  noted on the issue, since that is a real if small capability loss.

#15 (F-004) -- the raw Census files report thousands of dollars; this
package multiplies by 1000 and returns full US dollars. Correct, and already
stated in ?cog_spending / ?cog_revenue @return, in provenance, and in
cog-api's data-dictionary. Absent from every surface a reader meets FIRST.
Added to README.md as its own section and to both vignettes' openings.

The dangerous one is cog_explorer/CLAUDE.md, which states the opposite rule
("All raw `amt` values are in $1,000s") without scoping it to the raw column
-- a reader applying that to amt_nominal overstates by 1000x and gets a
plausible-looking number rather than an obvious error. Fixed there too; that
directory has no git remote, so it rides in no PR and is left uncommitted
for the owner.

#14 (F-021) -- .peer_summary_rows() computes stats::quantile() separately
inside each (year, spend_subtype, category) cell, so a summary_p50 row is
"the median peer's value in that one category", never "the value of the
median peer's total" -- the median peer for Police and for Fire are usually
different governments. Summing them across categories misstated a
total-spending band by -32.7% to +251.0% across 24 years, with a sign flip
at FY2012. The verb is right and its documented use (facet by role AND
category) is unaffected, so the fix is @return prose plus a worked snippet
showing the correct computation: sum each peer's own categories first, then
take the quantile of those per-government totals.

This is the R-side counterpart of cog-api#9, fixed on the API surface
earlier today; the wording is deliberately consistent across the two.

Note the phrase "not additive" has to stay on one roxygen source line --
the test greps the generated Rd, where a line wrap turns it into
"not   additive" and stops matching. Cost one red run to find.

man/ regenerated with roxygen 8.0.0 against a repo built with 7.3.3, so
cog_spending.Rd and DESCRIPTION were reverted -- their entire diff was
version churn (reindentation, RoxygenNote -> Config/roxygen2/version) with
no content change. The two Rd files kept carry only the edits above.

Suite: 629 pass / 0 fail / 3 skip (was 606/0/6). The three remaining skips
are #11, #12 and #13.
2026-07-30 11:23:53 -04:00

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---
title: "Population denominators"
output: rmarkdown::html_vignette
vignette: >
%\VignetteIndexEntry{Population denominators}
%\VignetteEngine{knitr::rmarkdown}
%\VignetteEncoding{UTF-8}
---
```{r setup, include = FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(eval = FALSE, collapse = TRUE, comment = "#>")
```
# Why per-year population matters
A note on units first, since every figure below is a rate: the numerator is in **full US dollars**. The raw Census files report **thousands of dollars** and the corpus keeps them that way in its own `amt` column, but `cog_spending()` and `cog_revenue()` multiply by 1000 on the way out, so `amt_per_capita_nominal` is already dollars per person. Do not scale it again.
Per-capita finance numbers divide each year's spending or revenue by a population denominator. The choice of denominator is a research decision, not an implementation detail: a 24-year corpus paired with a single 5-year ACS estimate produces biased per-capita values whose magnitude scales with each government's population change.
`uscogdata` defaults to the **Census F-33 population value Census itself uses to compute its published per-capita tables.** That value is recorded on every COG row as `population`, with `popyear` indicating the vintage. For a city that grew from 200,000 to 300,000 between 2000 and 2023, this default reproduces the per-capita value Census published. A static ACS denominator would have understated 2000 per-capita by ~33%.
# The four population sources
| Source | What it is | Default in uscogdata? |
|---|---|---|
| Census F-33 `population` | Population value Census used on each COG row to compute its published per-capita tables. Almost always a Population Estimates Program (PEP) estimate; sometimes lagged a year for fiscal-year alignment, recorded in `popyear`. | **Yes — default for `cog_spending(per_capita = TRUE)` etc.** |
| PEP (raw) | Census Bureau's official annual intercensal estimates, distinct from F-33 because F-33 sometimes uses a lagged vintage. | No (not in corpus) |
| ACS 5-year | American Community Survey 5-year rolling average. Different methodology, has margin of error, only available 2005-2009 onward. | Used by `cog_find_peers()` historically; replaced in 0.1 by per-year F-33. Still available in `canonical_fips_xwalk.population_acs` for non-time-series uses. |
| Decennial count | Actual count, every 10 years. | No (not in corpus) |
The F-33 denominator is preferred because it's the same value Census uses internally — so `uscogdata` per-capita numbers reconcile with Census's own published tables.
# Coverage
F-33 `population` is observed for gov types 0–3 (state, county, city, township). Gov types 4 (special districts) and 5 (school districts) have `population` masked to NA in the F-33 schema. uscogdata returns:
- `pop_source = "census_f33"` and a numeric `amt_per_capita_*` for types 0–3.
- `pop_source = "unavailable"` and `NA` per-capita for types 4–5, with a corresponding entry in `notes`.
`cog_geographic_rollup(per_capita = TRUE)` excludes unavailable-pop rows from the result; the dropped govids are listed in `provenance\$rollup\$excluded_govids`.
# The popyear quirk
Census sometimes uses a population estimate from one year prior to the fiscal year being reported (e.g., FY2018 paired with a 2017 PEP estimate) so the denominator is available before the fiscal year closes. `popyear` records which vintage was paired; `cog_spending()` returns the popyear range in `provenance\$transformations\$per_capita\$popyear_range` rather than as a per-row column.
# Time-varying peer cohorts
`cog_find_peers(target, year = Y)` builds a cohort matched on each candidate's population at year `Y`. The cohort is fixed once chosen; `cog_peer_compare()` then runs that cohort across whatever `years` you ask for. To run a moving-window comparison, build cohorts year-by-year and stitch the results:
```r
years <- 2010:2023
out <- purrr::map_dfr(years, function(y) {
peers <- cog_find_peers("261163166615", year = y, max_peers = 10L)
cog_peer_compare("261163166615", peers,
category = "Police", years = y,
per_capita = TRUE)
})
```
Each row in `out` has `cohort_year == year`, so a faceted plot shows cohort drift directly.
# Future direction
`pop_source` is a column on the result, not a fixed value, so adding a new denominator (PEP from tidycensus, decennial counts, ACS time-series) is a join change rather than an API change. A future release may add `cog_spending(..., pop_source = "pep")` for users who need a single externally-audited series.